Saudi Arabia To Cut Oil Exports By 1 Million Bpd Next Month

US investment banks see low oil prices despite OPEC cut

Commenting on US pressures, the UAE's Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazroui said OPEC "won't take instructions from anyone".

The market will get a peak at US oil inventories this afternoon when the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, releases a report at 4:30 p.m. EST. Oil prices rose on Monday, extending gains from Friday when producer club OPEC and some non-affiliated producers agreed on a supply cut of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January in defiance to US President Donald Trump's call for the producer group to keep taps open. Any slowdown would hurt oil demand.

A steep increase in the pace of crude supply growth this year, especially in the world's three largest producers - the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation - has made a number of analysts wary about the prospect of demand being sufficient to mop up extra oil.

Two factors are complicating efforts to reach a production cut agreement.

Malaysia is not an OPEC member. This was offset by increases of 377,000 bpd from top exporter Saudi Arabia and an extra 71,000 bpd from the United Arab Emirates.

In addition to American shale producers firing on all cylinders, the impact of higher inventories in countries like Iraq and Brazil on market fundamentals is something the Saudi-Russia cut may not be able to fully counter.

Russia, the world's second biggest crude producer, will curb its production by around 228,000 bpd, 2 percent of its 11.4 million bpd production level in October, Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak confirmed Friday.

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Some countries have been applied a compromise within the framework of the agreement on reduction of oil production.

OPEC's third largest producer Iran, however, will be exempt from the deal due to USA sanctions on its crude exports, joining Libya and Venezuela, which will also be excluded from the oil cut agreement.

That sentiment was echoed by commodity hedge fund Philipp Oil, which said in an investor letter that while Brent has found a floor of around $60 a barrel after the supply limits were announced, weaker oil demand and booming US shale output will keep markets oversupplied.

After the OPEC decision, the brokerage house expects a gradual recovery in Dated Brent crude price to $65 a barrel for the remainder of FY19 from around $60 a barrel now.

"Malaysia has agreed to continue its voluntary commitment by reducing its total oil output by 15,000 barrels per day", Azmin Ali, minister of economic affairs, said in a statement on Saturday.

Crude prices are down around a third since early October amid the financial market slump and an emerging oil supply overhang.

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