IEA Wobbles on Impact of OPEC Cuts, Citing Growing US Production

Brent crude rises to $61 on Libyan supply cut, US inventories

Lower production from Russian, Canada and the North Sea were the culprits.

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped at a record rate of 11.093 million bpd.

In addition to American shale producers firing on all cylinders, the impact of higher inventories in countries like Iraq and Brazil on market fundamentals is something the Saudi-Russia cut may not be able to fully counter.

USA crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell by 1.2 million barrels in the week to December 7, compared with market expectations for a decrease of 3 million barrels. "After this year's non-OPEC production was upwardly revised by 190,000 barrels, chiefly because of Russia-it is now set to soar by 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year-it is likely to meet all of the growth in global demand", the Commerzbank analysts said.

Analysts seem to be beginning to worry the supply cut announced by OPEC+ would not be enough to compensate projections for slowing demand growth as pressure increases on emerging economies.

Azerbaijan undertook to reduce its production by 35,000 barrels per day within the framework of the Declaration of Cooperation signed in Vienna on December 10, 2016.

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A combination of factors such as production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC producers such as Russian Federation and further sanctions-related declines in Iranian exports are likely keep markets tight in the first half of next year, Jefferies analyst Jason Gammel said.

Global benchmark February Brent crude LCOG9, +1.05% added 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $60.47 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

"As ever, there's a bit of smoke and mirrors around the latest OPEC deal", said David Fyfe, an oil market economist formerly at trading firm Gunvor and the International Energy Agency. The next meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC format will be held in Vienna in April next year to revise the agreement.

The EIA on Tuesday revised its forecast for 2019 crude prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $52.16 U.S. per barrel, up 51 cents, or 1%. For this year, Brent is forecast to average $71 a barrel and the WTI average is forecast at $64 a barrel. The United States didn't export any crude oil to China in August and September after USA crude oil was subject to increased import tariffs. USA light crude was steady at $51.15. "Opec is no longer the 30 million barrel (per day) group". Ten years ago, that number was 11.1 million barrels a day.

The oil price has fallen by almost a third so far this quarter to around $61 a barrel, from a four-year peak close to $87 in early October.

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